Popular Office Trend Predictions Might Be Off The Mark

I have expressed some skepticism about dire predictions about the end of office buildings as a result of the forced work-from-home conditions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.  I wanted to share an excerpt from a recent Globe Street.com article by Erika Morphy that articulates my own predictions.  In this article, Ms. Morphy debunks several myths about how the pandemic has changed commercial real estate.  The excerpt below focuses on office buildings:

The Myth

Office users will need less space as their employees continue to work from home. Office demand will lessen as fewer employees work full time in the office.

The Reality

This question of future office demand, of course, is being debated fiercely in the CRE community right now and there are good points to be made for both sides.  RCLCO principal Rick Pollack weighs in with an overlooked observation that Millennials and younger generations are having a harder time working at home as many are living in or sharing small apartments. There are also social aspects of an in-office experience that are difficult to replicate virtually.

Likewise from the employer perspective, Pollack said. “Onboarding new employees is more difficult to do virtually. There is also the cultural benefit of having people in the office and bottom line benefits of collaboration to consider,” he said.

For many companies this does not have to be an all-or-nothing proposition but even just shrinking square footage can come with problems, Pollack added. “Employees need somewhere to sit. The feedback on the hoteling or hot desking trend has not been positive. People are less productive when they don’t have an assigned desk.”

His conclusion: Office users will continue to use the same amount of space as they did before the pandemic. 

Another popular prediction is that office buildings need to become a no-touch, germ-free experience.Sensors for everything.No need to push buttons in an elevator or grab a handle to open a door.No need to dial a telephone in a conference room.And daily janitorial cleaning services performed to hospital standards.In the short term, this is indeed what office and building managers need to do to help keep the tenants and visitors safe.But after the pandemic passes, will these be permanent features of the modern office building?I wonder.